It could cross 1M sooner, but the pathway doesn’t go through ETS, Carnegie, or Pearson making changes.
It’s cheaper to grant degrees based on work experience, online unis will expand that model, and competency-based learning fits there quite neatly. It’ll be snhu/wgu/umgc etc who drive this, at least in the next 5 years
You are right that it is cheaper to give credit for experience, but ETS/Carnegie/Pearson reach millions of students each year whereas SNHU/WGU/UMGC are still in the low hundreds of thousands. It will also be easier for big EdTech to build coalitions for policy change than the Mega universities, who are increasingly taking share from small public/privates...
I guess part of my intuition here is that the big coalitions will have many years of trialing and testing, and are better modeled as “no change” than “change programs for 1M+ students”
Scaling the cadre of online unis to 1M, on the other hand, seems almost inevitable
Yeah, I suppose you could boil it down to a bet on whether Higher Ed will change faster than the mega universities compound enrollments. Tricky thing is WGU and Capella are the only Megas with CBE enrollments at scale - Capella's tax status is definitely a headwind right now, so WGU would have to take the lion's share of the million enrollments to get there
Yeah, the weight of my probabilities for a 5 year 1M has be in a story like “wgu/capella double in size, three other Megas turn on CBE and have similar growth”
It could cross 1M sooner, but the pathway doesn’t go through ETS, Carnegie, or Pearson making changes.
It’s cheaper to grant degrees based on work experience, online unis will expand that model, and competency-based learning fits there quite neatly. It’ll be snhu/wgu/umgc etc who drive this, at least in the next 5 years
You are right that it is cheaper to give credit for experience, but ETS/Carnegie/Pearson reach millions of students each year whereas SNHU/WGU/UMGC are still in the low hundreds of thousands. It will also be easier for big EdTech to build coalitions for policy change than the Mega universities, who are increasingly taking share from small public/privates...
I guess part of my intuition here is that the big coalitions will have many years of trialing and testing, and are better modeled as “no change” than “change programs for 1M+ students”
Scaling the cadre of online unis to 1M, on the other hand, seems almost inevitable
Yeah, I suppose you could boil it down to a bet on whether Higher Ed will change faster than the mega universities compound enrollments. Tricky thing is WGU and Capella are the only Megas with CBE enrollments at scale - Capella's tax status is definitely a headwind right now, so WGU would have to take the lion's share of the million enrollments to get there
Yeah, the weight of my probabilities for a 5 year 1M has be in a story like “wgu/capella double in size, three other Megas turn on CBE and have similar growth”
5 years is pretty quick for traditional unis